According to @business, Polymarket data shows that wagering against Donald Trump taking promised actions would have produced returns similar to the S&P 500, while betting he would follow through was a losing proposition, highlighting an execution-risk premium in these event contracts; source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing via @business, Oct 20, 2025; Polymarket data. According to @business, traders allocating to the “No” side on Trump policy event markets historically captured equity-like returns, whereas the “Yes” side underperformed, suggesting positioning bias and sizing should reflect the historical edge observed in Polymarket outcomes; source: Bloomberg Evening Briefing via @business, Oct 20, 2025; Polymarket data.